Signal Intelligence About The LP

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Sunday, March 16, 2008

Ruwart To Enter LP POTUS Race

As I noted on Mar 11 (Mary Ruwart Entering LP Race?), it seems that Mary Ruwart will be entering the LP presidential race.  I'm told that longtime radical LP member Les Antman wrote yesterday on LP Radicals:
We are going to have a candidate who:

(1) Has been a plumb-line libertarian for 3 decades. Will not require us to hold our nose on ANY issue.

(2) Has specialized in addressing tough libertarian questions, and has the encyclopedic knowledge of a research scientist to defend the practicality of our views.

(3) Is a very experienced and appealing writer, speaker, and radio interviewee.

(4) Has the strongest tie-in, by far, of any potential LP candidate to Ron Paul: he not only endorsed her terrific introduction to libertarianism and provided a nice blurb for her back cover, but nominated her for a position as an FDA Commissioner.
The data from Steve Gordon's recent poll of 98 self-selected self-designated likely Denver delegates would suggest that Ruwart will be almost an instant front-runner:

Very Positive Somewhat Positive
Ron Paul 68% 17%
Mary Ruwart 44% 32%
Bob Barr 35% 30%
Wayne Root 25% 16%
Steve Kubby 16% 39%
George Phillies 16% 25%
Christine Smith 13% 22%
However, Ruwart was a speaker at the LPCA convention and a panelist in the presidential debate there, and there was nothing stopping delegates from writing her in on their all-write-in ballot.  Nevertheless, Ruwart got votes from only four people, and two of them preferred Root as their first choice.  (21 cast some kind of vote for Ron Paul, and 3 did wrote down Bob Barr.)
I would guess that with Ruwart in the race, the odds are Root 30%  Ruwart 30%  Kubby 20%  Phillies 10%  Smith 5%  others 5%.
Ruwart's Wikipedia entry notes that she won 1.1% in a 4-way race for the Texas Senate seat in 2000, in which the Green won 1.5% and the Republican won by a 65% blowout.  In 2002, the LPTX's Scott Jameson polled 0.8% and the Green 0.6% in a closer 55%-43% GOP win.  Jameson got 2.3% in the 3-way 2006 62%-36% GOP victory.  Kubby finished 4th with 0.9% in his 7-way 1998 California gubernatorial race.
Root supporters could argue that Ruwart and Kubby are unlikely to do any better than recent LP presidential nominees, while Ruwart and Kubby supporters could argue that Root should first try a high-profile Nevada race before shooting for the White House.


Eric Dondero said...

I have very mixed feelings on Ruwart. She's passed her prime. She was a hot commodity in the 1990s, in the LP, yet she balked at running back then. And her book from a few years ago, was quite New Agey. Not something that would attract disgruntled Republicans.

On the plus side, she is a former appointed official. In the 1990s she served on a couple local offices in Kalamazoo, Michigan. That's a definite positive for her.

Anonymous said...

I don't see how you have Root beating Ruwart. Maybe on the first ballot, but where will Kubby, Phillies and Smith support go on subsequent ballots?

Unless Root can get a majority rather than a plurality, he's toast.

The post-nomination problem is a separate issue; I discuss it in the Ruwart thread at TPW.