I would assume that Christine Smith would lead the pack of the other LP candidates, but their presence on the ballot will surely inject a certain amount of noise in the results.
It would be interesting to predict the impact of the Ron Paul phenomenon, if only there were a way to measure it. Here is the result of the 2004 California Libertarian primary:
- Gary Nolan, Libertarian .......... 11,677 votes 59.3%
- Aaron Russo, Libertarian .......... 4,761 votes 24.2%
- Michael Badnarik, Libertarian .......... 3,266 votes 16.5%
I won't say who I voted for, as I'm waiting until after the candidates react to the mid-February Platform Committee report before making any endorsements. Updating my December prediction, I think the nomination is still Paul's for the taking, but I judge there's now only a 2% chance he'll take it. I rate the other contenders' odds as: Kubby 35% Phillies 35% Root 25% Smith 3%, meaning that I think Phillies has moved up as Paul's odds have decreased (due as much or more to his lack of interest than to Newslettergate).