Signal Intelligence About The LP

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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

CA Prediction: 1. Root 2. Phillies 3. Kubby

In today's California LP presidential beauty contest, I predict that Wayne Allyn Root will come in a clear first, and that George Phillies will edge native son Steve Kubby. Even here in the Bay Area, I don't perceive a lot of the favoritism one would expect in the incumbent parties for a native son, but Kubby's name recognition could confound my guess here. As Root himself admits, the vote doesn't mean much, since the delegates in Denver are not bound in any way by the results. Phillies has been calling California RegLibs, and even called my house twice -- not because I'm anyone special, but probably either because Melisse is also a RegLib, or because I'm an LP member to boot. Last night Tom Knapp posted to LPCA forums a message from Kubby reiterating his support for Ron Paul even as he says Paul's campaign "is probably over, at least as far as putting a name on the November ballot is concerned". Kubby highlighted his political accomplishments in the area of medical marijuana, and noted his appearance at a press conference on that subject yesterday on the steps of San Francisco city hall.

I would assume that Christine Smith would lead the pack of the other LP candidates, but their presence on the ballot will surely inject a certain amount of noise in the results.

It would be interesting to predict the impact of the Ron Paul phenomenon, if only there were a way to measure it. Here is the result of the 2004 California Libertarian primary:
In Oct 2004 we had 89617 RegLibs, for 0.54% of voters. Now we have 80435, for 0.51%.

I won't say who I voted for, as I'm waiting until after the candidates react to the mid-February Platform Committee report before making any endorsements. Updating my December prediction, I think the nomination is still Paul's for the taking, but I judge there's now only a 2% chance he'll take it. I rate the other contenders' odds as: Kubby 35% Phillies 35% Root 25% Smith 3%, meaning that I think Phillies has moved up as Paul's odds have decreased (due as much or more to his lack of interest than to Newslettergate).

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