Signal Intelligence About The LP

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Wednesday, February 6, 2008

CA: 1. Smith 2. Kubby 3. Root

Christine Smith easily outpaced the crowded LP field in today's non-binding LP primary, taking 26% to Kubby's 17%, Root's 15%, and Phillies' ~7th-place 4.9%. Turnout was on a pace of 50% of 2004 levels, though absentee ballots might change that somewhat. I'm astonished at Phillies' result, which was only a little bit above what might have been a noise-induced minimum vote for the five trailing candidates. In San Francisco county, home of the Outright Libertarians who had endorsed him, Phillies had only 20 votes (6.6%) with 450 of 580 precincts reporting. Kubby, whom Outright leader Rob Power had dismissed as having "withdrawn" from the race by endorsing Ron Paul, stood at 57 votes (18.7%) there. Smith and Phillies had both missed the April LPCA convention, so speaking in front of the hundred or so delegates had little correlation with the election results. I don't buy Tom Knapp's theory that Smith was helped by having the same name as a Playboy playmate, but pictures like the one at right couldn't have hurt her cause with the heavily male and web-dwelling LP electorate. If her evident passion for liberty can overcome her suspiciousness of moderate Libertarians, her energy and enthusiasm could sweep her into the nomination, or at least secure her the V.P. spot and an inside track for a future bid.

Smith has to now be considered a top-tier contender for the nomination, and the Phillies campaign needs to be able to explain its poor performance. I have to revise my nomination odds to Kubby 30% Smith 30% Root 20% Phillies 10% Hess 5% Jackson 2% Paul 2% Other 1%.

California: 47.8% ( 11063 of 23109 ) precincts
Christine Smith (Lib)1,975 25.9 %
Steve Kubby (Lib)1,333 17.5 %
Wayne A. Root (Lib)1,114 14.6 %
Bob Jackson (Lib)615 8.1 %
Michael P. Jingozian (Lib)387 5.1 %
Barry Hess (Lib)388 5.1 %
George Phillies (Lib)379 4.9 %
Daniel Imperato (Lib)313 4.0 %
Robert Milnes (Lib)303 3.9 %
John Finan (Lib)299 3.9 %
Dave Hollist (Lib)297 3.8 %
Alden Link (Lib)247 3.2 %

Missouri went 1) Root 2) Kubby 3) Phillies. Don't think that the 47% for uncommitted was a Ron Paul vote, because uncommitted took 39% in 2004 (Nolan 45% Perez 9% Diket 8%). I don't know why Smith wasn't on the ballot in Missouri.

Missouri: 3357 of 3371 precincts
Uncommitted 961
Root 372
Kubby 197
Phillies 164
Hollist 141
Imperato 139
Jingozian 79

The Arizona LP held an online instant-runoff non-binding primary, and tonight their site says merely that the results were:
1. Phillies
2. Root
3. Hess

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