Signal Intelligence About The LP

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Saturday, April 28, 2012

2012 Convention Election Predictions

Gary Johnson will win the presidential nomination on the first ballot, with about 55% of the votes.  If the rumors are true that Jim Gray is Johnson's running mate, then he will win the vice-presidential nomination. I'm guessing Lee Wrights will selflessly agree to run against Gray for the hopes of his supporters to balance the ticket, even though it would be an uphill struggle.

I'm not sure whether Mark Hinkle or Mark Rutherford will be elected Chair.  Hinkle as the incumbent will have the inside track, but the election could very well be tipped by how deftly he handles the gavel during parliamentary conflicts over registration fees and credentialing Oregonians.  Wes Wagner will win less than 20% of the votes.

Bill Redpath may end up unopposed for Vice Chair, but if the 2nd-place Chair candidate runs against him then it's a toss-up. My guess is that the 2nd-place Chair candidate would just run for LNC and not risk losing both Chair and Vice-Chair.

Alicia Mattson will easily win re-election as Secretary.

Starr vs. Phillies for Treasurer will be close.  Phillies will do much better than the 8-10% he's recently received in Chair and POTUS races, but will not do nearly as well as the 70% that his slate-mate James Oaksun received against Starr in the 2010 Treasurer race. Starr will emphasize that he's done the job well in the past, and that Oaksun joined a series of non-Starr Treasurers who had difficulty completing even one term.  I'm guessing Starr wins.

The race for LNC At-Large representatives (top 5 elected) will probably finish in an order like this:
  • Hinkle or Rutherford
  • Wayne Root
  • Lee Wrights
  • Mary Ruwart
  • Kevin Knedler
  • Rebecca Sink-Burris

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