Signal Intelligence About The LP

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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Updated Odds on LP POTUS Race

An excellent statement from Phillies.  If George continues to apply these guidelines to his own disagreements with people on LNC and in the national office, then there will be  no good reason why the delegates shouldn't turn to him in Denver as  a unity candidate.  George seems to be consistently gaining ground, while every other candidate is slipping backward or running in place.
When I predicted Ruwart's candidacy on March 16, I gave the odds as: Root 30% Ruwart 30% Kubby 20% Phillies 10% Smith 5% others 5%.   I would now rate them as: 
Root or Barr: 40%
Ruwart or Kubby: 30%
Phillies: 20%
Gravel: 5%
others: 5%
Between Root and Barr, I hesitate to underestimate the advantage Root has of already having taken his opponents' best shots for months.  If I had to bet my house on only one candidate, I'd predict that forthcoming attacks on Barr will give the nomination to Root.
Between Ruwart and Kubby, I don't see that Ruwart's unwillingness to clarify her positions on children's legal protections will put much of a dent in her appeal to Kubby's base.  I admire Kubby for coming to Ruwart's aid by trying to change the subject from Ruwart's enduring principles to Cory's hasty press release, as he surely knows that doing so solidifies her advantage over him in preference voting by their supporters.