Signal Intelligence About The LP

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Sunday, February 24, 2008

Root Wins LPCA Straw Poll

The LPCA Convention today held an open instant-runoff straw poll after hearing Burns, Kubby, Jingozian, Phillies and Root debate. The counts of first-preference results were:
  • 20 Wayne Root
  • 12 Steve Kubby
  • 12 Ron Paul
  • 8 George Phillies
  • 3 Jim Burns
  • 2 Christine Smith
  • 2 Mary Ruwart
  • 2 Karen Kwiatkowski
  • 1 Michael Jingozian
  • 1 NOTA
After the IRV process, the results were
  • 31 Root
  • 21 Kubby
All of the 64 anonymous ballots have been made public at http://snurl.com/lpcsec.

Smith's victory in the Super Tuesday primary seemed to have been anomolous, perhaps explicable by her being the only woman in a very crowded field. By winning convincingly in Kubby's home state, Root has established himself as the front-runner in the campaign. I would now rate the odds of nomination as
  • 50% Root
  • 35% Kubby
  • 10% Phillies
  • 5% Others

2 comments:

paulie said...

Steve Kubby had (still has) the flu. Root performed better in the debate.

I don't think that necessarily conveys frontrunner status in Denver.

paulie said...

Steve explains at TPW

"Steve Kubby Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Root deserved to win. He has reversed his stance on foreign policy, and he spoke well. Unfortunately, I was still sick from the flu and I did not speak well. My head felt like I had half the Pacific Ocean inside. As a result, I had trouble hearing and organizing my thoughts. I also stumbled several times, something I don’t usually do."